I talk about a lot of concepts without concrete examples on the blog, not to be obtuse (but it probably comes across that way sometimes, sorry), but because I don’t ever want to be a contributor to the “bloggers killing plays” epidemic.
I’m not trying to be the next Brian Kelly (and I think that ship has sailed), so there’s nothing to gain in being too specific on a non-private space.
However, we’re in a weird spot with a certain strategy that many of us in the community have employed over the years. It’s very likely that the math changes quite a bit in just a few short weeks, and we’ll be left with some decisions to make.
Since there is a finite timeline and this is more of an admittedly very fun “nice to have” vs. a “give my kids the Gift of College” sort of play, I feel comfortable being somewhere like 5-10% less obtuse in this post.
Traditionally, the general consensus around trying to MS loyalty status has been to really make sure it makes sense for your individual situation. Having top-tier status sounds great (and it certainly can be), but more often than not, you’ll find yourself fairly disappointed, especially when you’re flying and staying domestically.
Before even factoring in whether the airline or hotel chain actually has an operating footprint that fits your travel preferences, you need to consider how much time and money it will cost you to MS it.
If it’s not clear that the benefits of status outweigh both the cost of the MS itself and the opportunity cost of putting that spend elsewhere, it probably doesn’t make much sense to pursue.
However, as with every other aspect of the hobby, this weird post-pandemic world has presented some unique opportunities for savvy spenders. The continued explosion of interest in rewards cards and loyalty programs has led airlines to remove many butt-in-seat requirements for status, in some cases eliminating them completely.
Without the need to hop on some insane mileage runs, it became more feasible for a lot of us (especially those of us with W2s) to reach the highest level of status.
And there’s a pretty obvious choice of which airline was the best choice for this pursuit when you factored in status requirements, award charts, and card issuing partners.

Pictured: The Skymiles cost to fly 2 pax in economy RT from ATL-JAX, a nice little 45 minute commuter flight by way of Zimbabwe’s 2007 hyperinflation crisis
In a few weeks, the math behind MSing status with that airline is probably going to get a lot murkier. At face value, it doesn’t seem like a huge deal. It’s primarily just bad airplane food, a bigger seat, and a free drink here and there – things that you could easily pay for with other MS activities.
But even if the value paled in comparison to cashback loops, it was something that was just fun to chase, and a lot of us are going to miss the status if we do indeed lose it.
So what are the options before this change occurs? Let’s jump in.
Choice #1 – Let it go
While choosing to forego chasing status sounds like the unfun option, it’s the smartest choice for a lot of us. Some of us live in places like DFW and CLT. But others live in places like IAH and SFO, and losing it isn’t a big deal. And if you do live in the former places, you’re competing with a host of actual road warriors for that microwaved omelette.
This airline has a mostly great award chart, but it’s long overdue for the 2026 treatment to bring it in line with its major rivals. Locking your earnings into a currency that can be devalued at any point vs. a flexible one with easy liquidation is something that plays into the decision of whether to pursue or not.
More on this in a second, but if you were debating this choice vs. running it up, this also eliminates your issuer shutdown risk (at least for this angle, it is 2026 after all).
Choice #2 – Run it up
Instead of letting it go, you could do the polar opposite and do a big push to earn status before the changes happen. In the grand scheme of the MS world, the amount you’d need to spend isn’t really that crazy, even on an expedited timeline.
For many of us, the bottleneck here isn’t going to be the actual spend number, but more so how many multiples of your credit limit the spend number is.
For every community member that has a seasoned card account with a fat limit that has already hit status mere weeks into the status year, there’s somebody else that got a shrimpy $5k line that makes it a bit more daunting.
This issuer is pretty YMMV with business cycling as is, and you could quickly cross over into a situation where you don’t earn the status or keep the issuer relationship.
Whether you even still care about this particular relationship is also a hot topic these days, so do your own math about the other cards and transfer partners that you’d lose access to. While nobody is excited to get shutdown, it’s certainly not the setback that it was six months ago.
Choice #3 – Somewhere in the between
It’s important to note that the change this whole post is referencing isn’t to the loyalty program itself, and you can still earn it the same way you’ve been able to over the last 4 years.
You also have the option to continue pursuing it in a way that won’t draw unwanted attention, but it will come with a cost.
Since MSing this status will be more expensive soon, it quickly goes from “no-brainer if you have the card” back to the initial calculus mentioned in the intro.
If you don’t fly this airline or their partners often, it will be hard to justify. When there’s less margin to play around with, you’ll need a really strong spend and liquidation pairing.
Obviously, which one of these you choose depends on your individual situation, and all three could make sense for you. But unless you have a unicorn to keep it sustainable post-Q2, I’d personally be choosing between the first two.
Look at your credit limit, your appetite for risk, and how badly you actually want the miles, then decide from there.
Баяр хүргэе!


2 responses to “Let it go vs. run it up – a real-world risk example”
I’ve been thinking along the same lines since the dreadful news about the 6/1 sunsetting surfaced.
As a CLT based flyer with healthy CLs for multiple players, I’ve already decided on Choice #2 while the getting is good. Perhaps by the time status earned this year is exhausted end of 3/28, switching to a partner carrier’s status will make more sense, given that said partner is so willing to award status based on award bookings that aren’t even on its own metal.
Dave, we are on the exact same page on this one. This change has even got me thinking about the lifetime OWE angle much more seriously.