Pictured: A whale with a very heavy wallet who is mildly annoyed, but not particularly concerned about potentially losing some easy money, one increment of $176 at a time

There’s not much that the churning and MS community loves more than a good data point. Up to date info on what works, what doesn’t, and what’s YMMV ensures that Flyertalk threads make it to 100 pages long fairly frequently. 

As a result of that appetite for an accurate, fresh data point, we tend to get tunnel vision when leaning on others’ experience to ensure that our play of the day is going to go off without a hitch.

To be clear, I’m not arguing against the importance of data points. What I am pushing back on is the endless debate over data points tied to plays that represent a small slice of the average churner’s overall P&L.

To illustrate with a timely example – there is going to be a lot of ink spilled over the churning story du jour, which is somehow less interesting than the Bilt refresh. At least Bilt is giving gamers a small window to make a lot of money. 

I am of course talking about the hootenany over the (maybe?) death of everyone’s favorite use of Amex incidental travel credits. First off, as MEAB already pointed out, we have no idea if this is really the end. 

This has happened in the past, and it’s well known that Amex occasionally needs to give the credit and MR machines a swift kick to keep them humming.

But honestly, nobody reading this should be overly concerned, even if it is dead. Just look at the math. 

Let’s say you are a shrimp that is still growing in the game, and you have 2 ABPs. You liquidated your credits and waited for reimbursement.

But you weren’t reimbursed – now what? You could just fly UA and consider it a small interest-free loan you gave them (the loan is fine; it’s the flying UA that’s the problem). 

You could also liquidate it as if nothing changed at all – $200 x 2 x ~0.88 = $352. Did you lose $48? Yeah, and that’s annoying. But that is just a cost of doing business, just like fat fingering a wager, forgetting to cancel a card within the rebate window, etc. This isn’t the first time something like this has happened, and it won’t be the last.

People will (correctly) say irieriley, this is a stupid argument – it’s not about the loss of $48, it’s the inability to recoup the $352 that is the problem here. 

This is true – I primarily mention the minor cost to liquidate to alleviate the fear of having money stuck in UA (totally valid, lol). But you already paid the annual fee, and the money wasn’t tangible until you used the credit and got the reimbursement. And after what happened with Hilton credits last year, this felt like a matter of if, not when.

But most of you don’t have 2. Let’s say that between you and your P2, you have 20. 

Multiply the previous figures by ten and you’re looking at a $480 realized hit if you fail to get reimbursed, or, more accurately, the inability to recoup $3,520.

Again, that sucks. But if you’re already paying $18k of annual fees to Amex, you’ve reached a level that this isn’t catastrophic, especially since you are still coming out way ahead post SUBs, ECs, etc. And all you need to do is find $300 of play a month to make up for lost profit. 

Of course, there are whales for whom the potential loss is much bigger – but no ragrets. The only reason that potential loss is so big is because you were already slamming it hard 🐋.

Lastly, if you don’t end up getting reimbursed, you do technically still have the credit. While none of us would prefer $200 of lounge passes, checked bags and onboard trail mix over $176 cash, I’ve personally found uses for them outside of credit in the past. While it’s no replacement for cash, they can be quite useful in niche situations.

And look, if it really is over, it’s frustrating, and I’m not pretending it’s not. But ultimately, it’s just one more step in the broader march of enshittification that is turning every premium card into an expensive prepaid coupon book. The issuers are making it very clear that this is the game plan going forward.

So, instead of spending time hand-wringing over whether reimbursements will post, channel that same energy into finding your next play. I guarantee the ROI is higher.

Meqem qaagiti!