Throughout each year, there is a (somewhat) predictable flow of transfer bonuses from both banks and loyalty programs enticing you to move your flexible and somewhat liquid bank points to rigid and somewhat less liquid program-specific points. 

The value proposition is often compelling – reducing an already appealing saver award rate by up to 30-40% is the kind of cents per point fodder that the affiliate blogs love to share en masse. However, unless you get extra lucky, a transfer bonus won’t line up with a booking window for upcoming plans.

So, what is one to do when an award program you’re fond of is offering a bonus when you have no immediate need to book? The general wisdom is to completely ignore the bonus – after all, “don’t speculatively transfer” is an axiom that is probably only a few pegs below “don’t call the bank” in churning lore.

For most churners, this logic is sound. However, I’ll offer the contrarian opinion that there are a handful of reasons to speculatively transfer when you’re hitting plays hard and aren’t relying on sign up bonuses as your main source of points and miles. 

A psychological push

I’ve written about why I think MSers should treat themselves occasionally and a speculative transfer during a bonus period is the perfect opportunity to do so. Over time and experience gained, the average “rainy day fund” of points for a MSer will grow smaller and smaller. Once you start to see points as an asset with a market value tied to them, it’s less than ideal to have them sitting around earning nothing.

The team cashback people can probably ignore this advice, but I believe there’s something to be said for keeping a (relatively) small stash of points in your favorite loyalty program as a form of withholding to remind you to do something fun with them. 

It gets a bit more difficult psychologically as time goes on to redeem for flights (especially in premium cabins) when you can no longer pretend it’s free and can assign an accurate opportunity cost on the redemption. It’s a bit easier if the points are already locked into a program, especially if said program frowns on third party bookings. 

Ironically, flexibility

As we all know, churning and award travel are no longer niche hobbies confined to FlyerTalk forum posts. While I know we all have a good laugh at the NYT comment section whenever they post an article about churning, there will always be a handful of people who read that article the same week they see an “influencer” posting a TikTok about ANA F and put two and two together.

To support this growing demand for “free” travel, a cottage industry of tools has popped up to make finding an ideal award flight easier than ever. Between search tools that make ExpertFlyer look like COBOL in comparison and an array of monitoring services that are constantly looking for big award drops, it’s never been easier (or more competitive) to book a bucket list flight.

And just in case Trey, Tiffany, Jared or anyone else in said industry is reading this – I’m not hating at all (and I pay for a bunch of them). That being said, this new landscape necessitates being ready to book something in hours (if not minutes), compared to the relative lifetime you had back when ExpertFlyer was the primary game in town. Having miles in a loyalty program removes at worst a few minutes of processing time, and at best a glitch or error that kills your chances of getting the space completely. 

A unicorn like JAL releasing multiple F seats a few months ago doesn’t last long – if I hadn’t already speculatively transferred Avios during transfer bonuses, I’m not sure I would have succeeded at booking it. Having your “rainy day fund” in a loyalty program allows you to jump on a bucket list flight as soon as the Thrifty Traveler alert hits.

A hedge against adverse action

It’s probably fair to accuse me of burying the lede in this post because this last reason is much more tangible than the first two and is likely the most relevant for this audience. It’s possible to get largely neutered from earning points in a given program if you’re shutdown by that program’s issuing partner. Is this the end of the world? Probably not, but it can hurt, especially if you live in certain geographic areas. 

For example – let’s say you accidentally had a couple of returned payments with Amex, and they decided to shut you down. That would be quite tricky if you were a Delta loyalist – you’d no longer be able to transfer Membership Rewards to Delta, and you’d lose the ability to earn on the Delta co-branded cards as well. Delta isn’t always the easiest to book on partners, either. What are you going to do – actually pay for flights to earn miles? Come on now. I sure hope you don’t live in Atlanta or Minneapolis.

If you’re into shenanigans and hijinks on a certain bank and they are the issuing partner or a transfer partner (or both) of a loyalty program that is valuable to you, consider preemptively transferring, especially during a bonus period. Getting shutdown sucks, but it sucks a little less when not all is lost. 

Frequent Miler has a helpful database of transfer bonuses – take a look every once in awhile and see if there is a match between a bank you may be on borrowed time with and a loyalty program that you like using. 

Anyway, that’s my spiel for today. It’s probably an unpopular opinion, but I think it’s a minor behavioral adjustment that can pay dividends. Whether that means booking a unicorn first class flight or just saying “f it” to a long weekend to cross another ballpark of your list, having that extra 20-40% helps. Happy travels, and good luck with the shutdowns.

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